Gameweek 32 generated speculations over the future of Chelsea managership, and settled those over Arsenal ownership. Peter Crouch talked of redemption, United kept rolling on, Arsenal almost gave a surefire victory away, Daniel Sturridge continued his fiery run of form, and Sunderland got sued by a fan for a misdirected Cisse kick. In Anfield news, Carroll and Suárez clicked at long last, reversing the drubbing received earlier in the season while in interesting stats news, Kevien Davies tops everyone else in the league in flick-ons by 200!
We predicted seven correct outcomes with one perfect score (Aston Villa-Newcastle) for Gameweek 32 up from one correct and no perfect score for Gameweek 31. We also predicted two correct scorers for Gameweek 32 down from five for Gameweek 31. Our betting portfolio for Gameweek 32 gave approx. 3.1 % returns, down from 9.1% for Gameweek 31. Our strategy of backing the favorite yielded positive returns for the third straight week, so we are again going to be testing the hypothesis of odds reflecting performance closely towards the end of the season.
The post presents our predictions, favorites to score, and betting portfolio for Matchday #33:
EPL Predictions Matchday#33
Favorites to Score: Matchday #33
|Team||Favorite to Score|
|Arsenal||Robin van Persie|
|Aston Villa||Darren Bent|
|Stoke City||No Game|
|West Brom||Peter Odemwingie|
|West Ham||Frédéric Piquionne|
Assuming we could bet $100 (or multiples, since there is a minimum for most bets), the betting portfolio (below) shows how we would place our money. These are, mostly but not always, based on arbitrage between odds offered (also shown, reflecting percent chances of a result according to bookies) and percent chances of a result (according to us). Sometimes it reflects a changed betting strategy explained earlier in the post. Win, tie and loss are for the home team. Odds table follows the betting portfolio. For the odds table, 1=Home Win. X=Tie. 2=Away Win.
Betting Portfolio Matchday#33
|Birmingham vs Sunderland||$7.05||$2.95||$1|
|Everton vs Blackburn||$7.35||$2.65||$1|
|WestBrom vs Chelsea||$1||$2.7||$7.3|
|WestHam vs AstonVilla||$7.1||$2.9||$1|
|Blackpool vs Wigan||$7.15||$2.85||$1|
|Arsenal vs Liverpool||$7.5||$2.5||$1.5|
|Newcastle vs ManUtd||$1||$2.65||$7.35|
|Chelsea vs Birmingham||$8.45||$1.55||$1|
|Tottenham vs Arsenal||$7.15||$2.85||$1.5|
Odds Table Matchday #33
Now, we analyze how we did with our Matchday#32 predictions:
Table of Returns for Matchday #32
|Wolves vs Everton||$7.05||$2.95||$0×2.92=0|
|Blackburn vs Birmingham||$7.1||$2.9×3.46=10.034||$0|
|Bolton vs WestHam||$7.05×2.21=15.5805||$2.95||$0|
|Chelsea vs Wigan||$7.5×1.25=9.375||$1.5||$1|
|ManUtd vs Fulham||$7.75×1.5=11.625||$2.25||$0|
|Sunderland vs WestBrom||$7||$3||$0×3.6=0|
|Tottenham vs Stoke||$7.25×1.76=12.76||$2.75||$0|
|Blackpool vs Arsenal||$0||$1.9||$8.1×1.45=11.745|
|AstonVilla vs Newcastle||$7.3×1.9=13.87||$2.7||$0|
|Liverpool vs ManCity||$6.9×2.62=18.078||$3.1||$0|
Returns: $103.0675, ROI: 3.0675%.
For table of odds offered, to compute returns, please see the article on Matchday #32 predictions
Scorers predicted correctly: Robin van Persie, and Jermaine Beckford. For our predictions on favorites to score please see table on Matchday #32 predictions .
Return on Investement for last 30 Matchdays: 18.57%(Matchday 3)-6.585% (Matchday 4)+ 10.945%(Matchday 5) -22.305% (Matchday 6) + 8.895% (Matchday 7)+ 3.975% (Matchday Eight) -1.19% (Matchday 9) + 9.04% (Matchday 10) -13.415% (Matchday 11) -9.19% (Matchday12) -6.385% (Matchday 13) -6.14% (Matchday 14) + 0.12% (Matchday 15)-2.195% (Matchday 16) -1.07% (Matchday 17) + 11.67% (Matchday 18) -7.44% (Matchday 19) + 13.23% (Matchday 20) -8.234% (Matchday 21) + 3.826% (Matchday 22) -1.9575% (Matchday 23) -4.4975% (Matchday 24) -4.3105% (Matchday 25) + 7.8705% (Matchday 26) -0.2304% (Matchday 27) -1.516% (Matchday 28) -4.383% (Matchday 29) + 0.3225% (Matchday 30) + 9.0905% (Matchday 31) +3.0675 (Matchday 32) = -0.422%
We predicted seven correct outcomes with one perfect score (Aston Villa – Newcastle) for Matchday 32. We had two correct scorers for a 2/20= 10% accuracy.
Questions for the Matchday
How will Arsenal fare, with the North London Derby and a game against a resurgent Liverpool on the cards? Will Blackpool arrest their slide against a Wigan side they dominated on opening day? Will Drogba get the start this time, over Torres? With W’s making for the bottom three, what will the matchday bring to the fortunes of West Ham, Wolves, and Wigan?