Between a controversial Nani goal that has led to many a conspiracy theory brewed up on talk radio and the blogosphere, and a City collapse that has fans wondering why Adam Johnson is not starting league games, among other things, there has been nary a dull moment.
We predicted nine out of ten correct outcomes, for gameweek 10, with two perfect scores (Blackburn-Chelsea, and Blackpool-WestBrom). That amounts to thirteen points in comparison to Mark Lawrenson’s thirteen and Robbie Williams’ six for last weekend. We also predicted four correct scorers, same as the previous week. Our betting portfolio gave ~9% returns. In hindsight, we should have seen the City upset at Wolves coming from a mile, what with all too obvious discontent at the club
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Following are our predictions, favorites to score, and betting portfolio for Matchday#11:
Favorites to Score: Matchday #11
| Team | Favorite to Score |
| Arsenal | Marouane Chamakh |
| Aston Villa | John Carew |
| Blackburn | El-Hadji Diouf |
| Blackpool | Luke Varney |
| Birmingham | Nikola Žigić |
| Bolton | Johan Elmander |
| Chelsea | Florent Malouda |
| Everton | Tim Cahil |
| Fulham | Moussa Dembélé |
| Liverpool | Steven Gerrard |
| ManCity | David Silva |
| ManUnited | Javier Hernandez |
| Newcastle | Andy Carroll |
| Stoke City | Tuncay Şanlı |
| Sunderland | Darren Bent |
| Tottenham | Luka Modrić |
| Wigan | Hugo Rodallega |
| West Brom | Simon Cox |
| West Ham | Frédéric Piquionne |
| Wolves | Stephen Hunt |
Assuming I could bet $100(or multiples, since there is a minimum for most bets), the betting portfolio (below) shows how I would place my money. These are based on arbitrage between odds offered (also shown, reflecting percent chances of a result according to bookies) and percent chances of a result (according to us). Win, tie and loss are for the home team. Odds table follows the betting portfolio. For the odds table, 1=Home Win. X=Tie. 2=Away Win.
Betting Portfolio Matchday#11
| Matchup | Win | Tie | Loss |
| Bolton vs Tottenham | $1 | $2.5 | $3.5 |
| Birmingham vs WestHam | $4 | $2.5 | $1 |
| Blackburn vs Wigan | $4 | $2 | $1 |
| Blackpool vs Everton | $2.5 | $1 | $4.5 |
| Fulham vs AstonVilla | $4 | $2.5 | $1 |
| ManUtd vs Wolves | $14 | $2 | $1 |
| Sunderland vs Stoke | $4 | $3 | $1 |
| Arsenal vs Newcastle | $14 | $3.15 | $0.85 |
| WestBrom vs ManCity | $4 | $3 | $3 |
| Liverpool vs Chelsea | $3 | $2 | $5 |
Odds Table Matchday #11
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Now, we analyze how we did with our Matchday#10 predictions:
Table of Returns for Matchday #10
| Matchup | Win | Tie | Loss |
| Arsenal vs WestHam | $15×1.22=18.3 | $1 | $0.5 |
| Blackburn vs Chelsea | $1 | $2.5 | $11×1.5=16.5 |
| Everton vs Stoke | $6×1.62=9.72 | $1.5 | $0.5 |
| Fulham vs Wigan | $3×1.91=5.73 | $3 | $2 |
| Wolves vs ManCity | $0.5×5.94=2.97 | $2.5 | $5 |
| ManUtd vs Tottenham | $7×1.64=11.48 | $2 | $1 |
| AstonVilla vs Birmingham | $5.5 | $3.5×3.72=13.02 | $1 |
| Newcastle vs Sunderland | $5×2.2=11 | $3 | $1 |
| Bolton vs Liverpool | $1 | $3 | $5×2.3=11.5 |
| Blackpool vs WestBrom | $3×2.94=8.82 | $1 | $3 |
Returns: $109.04 ROI: 9.04%
For table of odds offered, to compute returns, please see the article on Matchday #10 predictions (hyperlink: http://www.bigshow.co.in/?p=503)
Scorers predicted correctly: Emmanuel Adebayor, Nicolas Anelka, Shola Ameobi, and Darren Bent. For our predictions on favorites to score please see table on Matchday #10 predictions
Moneyline:
Return on Investement for last 8 Matchdays: 18.57%(Matchday 3)-6.585%(Matchday 4)+ 10.945%(Matchday 5) -22.305% (Matchday 6) + 8.895% (Matchday 7)+ 3.975% (Matchday Eight) -1.19% (Matchday 9) + 9.04% (Matchday 10)= 21.345%
We predicted nine correct outcomes with two perfect scores (Blackburn-Chelsea, and Blackpool-WestBrom). We also had four correct scorers, which means we broke even in predictions here: 4/20=20% accuracy. For a typical 4-1 or 5-1 odds that’s even. For every $1 invested, you would get your money back.
Having lost the last two fixtures with Chelsea in the Premier League, including one that handed the Blues last year’s trophy, Liverpool would be looking for revenge. If StevieG (after three days of rest) performs anywhere near the level he did in his 15 minute hat-trick cameo, then we are in for Merseyside delight. Is Bale worth $80 mil, and will he stretch the Wanderers like the Champions League holders? Would you sell him if you were Daniel Levy? Is your answer going to be the same by the end of January? Will City wake up from their slumber and justify their price tag? Questions like these keep us all awake!
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