The plot thickens akin to Doyle’s mysteries and how! Four suspects and one will be convicted at the end. And just as Holmes never eased the tension and suspense lurked till the end, here too nobody knows what might unfold by the end of last lap of Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, the finale of 2010 F1 season. Even the chap lying beaten and bruised at distant fourth, eyes the trophy. Phew!
All the world’s truly a stage for the greatest sport and the stage’s set for the final act, enacted by the greatest of actors. Rest assured, it’ll be a speedy affair; in a blink of an eye, the curtains will be drawn and history will be made forever. I can’t resist the temptation to quote the God himself, Senna- “…The same moment you become the fastest, you’re enormously fragile. Because in a split second, it can be gone. All of it…” The battle can be lost even if one puts a wheel wrong or for want of a new engine or a more reliable one at that. Each of Alonso, Webber and Vettel has been phenomenal and none deserves more than the other. One’s heart might go to young Vettel who’s yet to develop race temperament, but is a future world champ or to the old bloke Webber for who this might be the last shot at the trophy.
Keeping the sentiments aside, the sheer math and the odds might make weathermen feel good for a change. The prolific Deva’s law is also tucked in the closet for such murky business. But we’ll still endeavour to make some sense out of it. Here goes nothing: We’ve worked out all possible scenarios. Easiest of all of course is an Alonso victory making him the youngest triple world champ. But not so fast dear readers, life isn’t so easy. He’s driving a tiring and 3 races old engine all ready to mar his chances.
Table: Different scenarios for F1 Championship. X, Y, Z denote any position on track.
|9th or above||Ret||Ret||1||Alonso|
2nd or below
(due to more no. of
4th place finishes)
|Beyond 10th||9th or lower||6th or lower||2||Hamilton|
In any case, for Alonso to win, he must maintain a difference of maximum of 8 with Webber and 15 or less with Vettel. It means, if Alonso finishes 6th, Webber must finish 3rd or lower and Vettel 2nd or lower. If he finishes 7th or 8th, Webber must come 4th or lower and Vettel 2nd or lower. If he finishes 9th, Webber must claim 5th or lower and Vettel 3rd or lower.
As can be inferred, if Alonso survives the engine and brings home the Ferrari even as high as 2nd, he’ll be crowned the champ. Webber will be hoping some mercy on Vettel’s part and grab the pole with Vettel at his side. Then Vettel can help him by keeping Alonso at bay. But sadly enough, Red Bull has publicly declared itself a sporting outfit and it’s each driver to his own. Vettel has a very distant shot and rely on Alonso’s engine’s unreliability. Quite an irony isn’t it. The longest shot is for Hamilton who’s still in because of the math.
In a final showdown, Ferrari had its luck in 2007 and McLaren in 2008. The law of averages also favors the Prancing horse. Just wondering if Alonso’s heard of the old adage, ‘For want of a nail, the battle was lost.’ Hope the nails on his Prancing horse are tightened to perfection. Godspeed!